Any Excuse to Handicap

I was quite excited to write this weekend’s entry into my blog.  It looked like the Fountain of Youth, one of this weekend’s derby preps, was shaping up to be an interesting match-up of three major contenders.  With so many prep races out there we don’t often get to see some of the top Triple Crown contenders meeting up so early in the season.  The entries for the Fountain of Youth included Algorithms, Union Rags and Discreet Dancer.  Algorithms trained by Todd Pletcher, recently beat Hansen, last year’s two-year-old champion when winning the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park.  Union Rags was going to be making his seasonal debut since winning last year’s Champagne Stakes and finishing as runner-up to Hansen in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.  Discreet Dancer, another promising Pletcher trainee, was going to be making his stakes debut after having won his first two races by a combined 15 lengths.  It all sounded very exciting to me, and as it turns out, too good to be true.  I just got home from doing some shopping and checked in with one of my favourite horses racing sites to find out that Algorithms, the likely favourite, has had to scratch due to a popped splint.  That’s horse racing for you – full of disappointments. 

I’ve been fighting sickness this week and when I saw the line-up for the Fountain of Youth and the Risen Star Stakes I decided I needed some R n’ R and some handicapping time on the couch.  This was my first chance to do some handicapping on paper since the Breeder’s Cup in November, so feeling a little under the weather was the perfect excuse to be couch-bound with my past performance sheets (PP’s).  As it turned out, in addition to these two prep races, there were several interesting races being run this weekend.  I’d forgotten how much I love handicapping on paper.  Handicapping the races visually, while fun and far less time-consuming work than the analysis of past performance records, does not allow for sufficient time to rest and boost one’s immune system while lying on the couch. 

Anyways, this was a fun handicapping weekend despite the scratch of Algorithms.  What I like best about handicapping is the decision about what factors are going to be most important in a given race.  At this time of year when handicapping three-year-old races I must admit that I focus a lot on speed figures.  I want to see steadily improving speed figures or marked improvement when a horse switches from sprint to route races.  I also look at runstyles and the likely pace scenario given the different runstyles of the entries.  When trying to find a longshot to back, I also look for poor past performances in a horse’s recent history and excuses for these poor performances.  If I can find a plausible excuse for a poor performance I can back a horse with longer odds.  If this horse goes on to lose I don’t have to feel so bad about my pick – it was a longshot anyways right?  I’m very unforgiving though and never allow a second excuse.             

This weekend I saw some favourites do well and some favourites fail to menace.  While I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Discreet Dancer or Union Rags do well I’m excited about the chances of a horse called Casual Trick.  He performed quite poorly in his last race but I’ve decided to excuse his performance due to a stumble at the start of the race.  Instead I’m choosing to look at his prior races and his improving speed figures with the elimination of this last race.  He’s trained by Nick Zito, no stranger to the Triple Crown trail.  He’s one of the many derby contenders sired by Bernardini, and his damsire Red Ransom lends distance to his pedigree.  I’m a big fan of exactas and exacta boxes where I can couple a promising favourite with a longshot.  Today with the scratch of Algorithms I’ll box Casual Trick with either Union Rags or Discreet Dancer in an exacta.  As I often do, I’ll make a last minute decision between the two favourites based on their body language in the post parade.  What a fine weekend of racing:  combining visual handicapping with my analysis of the pp’s.  It doesn’t get much better than this.  Time to get out my favourite Australian horse racing beer cosy, or as I like to call it my hand-warmer, and lay back on my sickbed to enjoy the show.             

Making Connections

   At this point along the derby trail there are so many new names and new stories to follow. As I try to absorb as many of the names as possible from this new crop of three year-olds, I look for familiar connections to help me sort out who is who. I look for familiar trainers, trainer-jockey combos and Canadian connections. I also look at bloodlines - not because I’m a pedigree analyst, but because these names are familiar to me from years following the sport of horse racing. I definitely have my favourite sires and I’m always excited to see their newest progeny competing and carrying on the bloodline.

   This year I’m quite taken with the number of Bernardini offspring appearing in the earliest of the Kentucky Derby preps. In my last blog entry I mentioned a horse called Hansen who was heavily favoured to win the Holy Bull. As it turns out he was beaten quite handily by Algorithms, a son of Bernardini. Algorithms certainly looked the part and likely turned many heads when he appeared in the post parade. The Holy Bull was run in the slop so perhaps it’s still too early to write off the chances of Hansen (maybe his fadder wasn’t a mudder). Then yesterday the Withers Stakes were run at Aqueduct and I was intrigued to see Alpha (another son of Bernardini) competing. In 2006 the Withers Stakes was won by Bernardini himself and this year his offspring won with ease. After watching this race I looked at the nominations for the Triple Crown and there are seven Bernardini offspring entered this year.

   This is only Bernardini’s second crop of three year-olds to compete on the derby trail. Will his offspring continue to do well in their derby preps and will they be able to handle the one and a quarter mile distance of the Derby? Bernardini himself never made it to the big race. A lung infection set him back in his training and he simply wasn’t ready to compete on the first Saturday in May. He did go on to win the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown, and at the end of the season he took the Eclipse Award for Top Three Year-Old Male. Worth more as a sire than as a racehorse (a sad reality in this industry), he was retired at the end of his three year-old season and he now commands a stud fee of $150 000. He’s become the hottest sire out there with 2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta expecting his foal in March. Now the connections of both Rachel Alexandra (2009 Horse of the Year) and Blind Luck (2010 Champion Three Year-Old Filly) have decided to match up their champions with Bernardini in this year’s breeding season. As an interesting side note, with only five fillies ever having won this race, the match up of Rachel Alexandra and Bernardini will likely be the first mating of two Preakness winners.

   So this year I will be following the Bernardinis as they continue in their training but I’m also taken with a horse called Battle Hardened. Once again it’s the sire connection grabbing my attention. This maiden horse won yesterday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. I loved watching Giant’s Causeway run in his racedays and I would love to see one of his progeny go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Creative Cause is another exciting derby hopeful sired by Giant’s Causeway. In closing, I can’t miss mention of my favourite sire with a Canadian connection: Langfuhr. Checking the list of this year’s nominees I must admit I got a wee bit excited by the number sired by Langfuhr and the even greater number sired by his son Lawyer Ron. Maybe next week I’ll have a derby trail breakthrough story with a Langfuhr connection to share?

Giant's Causeway