Derby Madness

It’s finally here:  Kentucky Derby Day!  

      I’m feeling on top of things this morning because I’ve already got my sugary julep mix prepared, and yes this year I actually found fresh mint (and lots of it) at my first stop. Thank you United Asian Market. On a side note, this year the derby coincides with Cinco de Mayo. Perhaps I’ll garnish my mint juleps with a slice of lime instead of lemon. Anyway, Last night I mixed and rolled my Bourbon Balls so I just need to chocolate dip them this morning.  

     I must admit that last night things got a little bit hairy.  Chris had wisely excused himself from Derby madness and had chosen to go see a movie with a friend.  When he returned I was on the floor amongst my stacks of derby stats from the last 10 years. I had been reading some racing blogs and forums and some wiseguy boasted about how he always throws out any horses from California, because they never win. This didn’t seem likely, but I was desperately searching for any means to reduce my number of picks so I pulled out my Kentucky Derby file and began sifting through the data.  Lo and behold, no horse prepping in California has won the derby in the last 10 years and only three horses finishing in the place or show position prepped in California. Would this be the final nail in the coffin for Creative Cause and I’ll Have Another?  

     With my morning coffee in hand I’m managing to keep last night’s derby madness at bay, so it’s on to my picks for the 138^th Kentucky Derby presented by Yum Brands (sorry couldn’t resist – it sounds so silly). This morning when I re-read my last blog entry I was surprised to see that my top three picks from last  are still my top three picks and despite last night’s California debacle, I’m still happy with my second tier of horses.  I plan to use Creative Cause, I’ll Have Another, Gemologist and Went the Day Well on the underside of some exactas.  

     Take Charge Indy will have to remain my top pick this year as he keeps coming up strong no matter what handicapping angle I use.  He was 15-1 morning line but unfortunately with Calvin Borel riding his odds are already dropping. Calvin has ridden three of the last five derby winners, and all the people who only bet on horse racing this one day of the year will base their bets on this fact.  Union Rags is my second pick. I’ve really liked the way he has trained coming up to this race and he has looked strong in his gallops over the Churchill Downs surface. I’m keeping Dullahan as my third pick because I really like his quick turn of foot and the pace could very well set up for a closer type. If the track turns to mud I’ll have to discount Dullahan’s chances as I don’t think he’ll enjoy the slop being kicked up in his face as he follows at least half the field around the track.

     Only 7 hours left in which to get ready.  Being Kentucky Derby Day I will of course be excused from any house cleaning, however I’ll still need to clean off the coffee table and ready my work station in front of the TV.  I’ve got several stacks of paper to arrange, and I’ll need room for the laptop, my Bourbon Balls, Hickory Sticks and mint julep.  

     With so many impressive three-year-olds this year it should be an exciting race. I can’t wait to begin the post-race analysis of the results.  It’s finally time to put on my derby hat and get ready for the big day.       

Six Days and Counting

     A week ago it felt like I was well ahead in my preparations but suddenly I feel like there’s so much left to consider.  It’s definitely a very wide open race this year.  I could make a convincing case to support the chances of at least half of this year’s field.  Nevertheless I still need to narrow down my picks.  I often have a sentimental favourite at this point but this season I’ve changed my mind several times.  We’ve certainly had a number of impressive performances in the prep races so picking a favourite will not be easy this year.  

     For anyone looking for my picks, I’m still likely to change my mind, and possibly several times over the next six days, but here they are:  Dullahan, Take Charge Indy and Union Rags.  My second tier of hopefuls include:  Creative Cause, I’ll Have Another, Went the Day Well and Gemologist.  Take Charge Indy is the only horse this year to score 4 out of 4 in my "four key factors" analysis.  This analysis considers a horse’s ability to succeed at the distance, their run style, their recent BRIS speed figures and late pace figures.  Dullahan’s performance in both the Blue Grass Stakes and the Palm Beach Handicap have caught my eye this year.  If he runs as well on dirt as he has on turf and all-weather surfaces he should be a tough one to beat.  Gemologist who is presently unbeaten made an impressive move in the Wood Memorial showing an ability to change gears quickly, just like Dullahan.  With possible traffic issues in a 20 horse field this can be a huge advantage.  Union Rags looks like a man amongst the boys but he was beaten by Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby.     

     I’m about half way through the process of re-watching each of the three year old prep races.  I’ve analyzed the pace for each of these preps to determine whether the pace was favourable or disadvantageous for each derby contender in the race.  I’ve also calculated the final fractions for each of these races to determine which races had the most contentious late pace.  With all of this information about the prep races I’m able to rank the performances of the individual horses to determine who is best prepared to win the run for the roses.  

     When I get home from work on Wednesday I’ll head to the computer to find out the results of the post position draw and add this information to my analysis. With Trinniberg’s connections deciding to enter their horse, it looks like we should have a fast early pace to the dismay of the connections of those horses looking for an easy early pace.  Pressers, horses who run from off the pace and trail the early speed horses, tend to do well in the Kentucky Derby.  Stalkers or closers who come from the back half of the field often run into trouble when facing so much traffic.   

     While post position, preferred run style and the possibility of a wet track will definitely be on my mind this week, I will still need to find the time to make bourbon balls and mint juleps.  This year I am determined to find mint at my first stop and avoid the frustrating tradition of visiting four or five stores before finding this essential herb for my mint julep preparations.  In my final entry before the big day I will share my mint julep and bourbon ball misadventures and hopefully try to narrow down my picks.     

Getting Down to Business

     Yesterday they ran the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. This means the field for the Kentucky Derby is pretty much set based on the present graded stakes earnings of the top contenders. Yes, the Lexington Stakes is still to be run next weekend so someone may still earn enough money to squeeze into the top 20. However horses coming out of the Lexington rarely go on to run well in the Derby (if their connections even decide to enter them off of only two weeks rest). So I can now begin to clear the dining room table to make room to spread out all my paperwork. Sorry Chris!

     I’m quite excited as this seems like a very interesting match up of contenders this year. At this time there are still two possible runners for Aidan O’Brien (top Irish trainer) prepping off races from Dubai World Cup night. We’ve also got 8 of the 14 horses who ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last fall who are still performing well in their three year old campaign and will likely be running in the Derby. With the Breeders Cup jinx, this indeed is highly unheard of. Over the last three weekends we’ve seen some very intriguing performances in the final prep races. We’ve seen a horse win at 109 – 1, we’ve seen front-runners learning to rate, we’ve seen front-runners going wire-to-wire and crushing their opponents, we’ve seen horses pulled up prematurely right after passing the wire, we’ve seen horses lose the lead and then fight back to win, we’ve seen horses with push-button acceleration . We’ve even seen an owner paint his horse’s tail blue before the Blue Grass Stakes, only to be told to return it to its normal colour or risk being pulled from running. All in all it looks like a highly competitive field of potential runners so let the handicapping fest begin!

     I’m also extremely excited to begin what I like to call my “Four Key Factors” analysis. But before I begin making my traditional “Four Key Factors” chart, I feel I need to do a little research this year about one of the stats I use as part of this analysis. Luckily I’ve amassed at least 10 years of reliable Kentucky Derby stats in my file box, so I will be able to conduct some research before deciding whether or not to make a change in my trusted system. I’m a little dubious about tinkering with my system, but one of my stats may prove to be outdated in its usefulness and may need to be replaced.


     Next week I’ll generously share a little info in my blog about the “Four Key Factors” I use in selecting my top derby contenders. I’ll also conduct a little research into its reliability in narrowing down the actual winner. Although I’ve come to rely on this system of analysis, my handicapping of the field certainly doesn’t stop with the completion of this one chart. This is just my annual starting point and with the completion of this chart, my analysis will begin to branch off in several other directions. With only three weeks left it’s time to get down to business.

 

Pace and Acceleration

I haven’t been able to get motivated to write about horse racing recently as I’ve been so crushed with the Ontario government’s decision to end the slots at racetracks program.  As a horse-racing fan I’m upset because the Liberal government’s decision to renege on this profit-sharing deal is inevitably going to mean that most racetracks in my province will not be able to survive without their share of the profits.  Woodbine will likely survive but I have no faith that many others will.  I’m devastated for those individuals and families who have been involved in the industry for generations and stand to lose everything they’ve worked for.  I’ve also been disgusted with the dishonest manner in which the Liberals have been trying to sell this decision to the people of Ontario.  Not one single penny of tax-payer money has been taken away from the education or health care system to fund the horse racing industry.  This was a profit sharing program whereby both the government and the horse racing industry were profiting from money spent by the public.  To learn more you can go to value4money.ca. 

I could continue to rant but I want this blog to be about sharing what I love about horse racing so I’ll leave it at that for now.  There are six more weeks before the Kentucky Derby which means most horses will have just one more prep race before the big day.  I’ve been very impressed to see so many of last year’s top-ranked two year olds continuing to perform well in their three year old preps.  Oftentimes a horse that performs well in their two year old season is simply developmentally ahead of their peers but, as time goes by they often seem to lose this developmental edge.  Hopefully the consistent performance of the top contenders means we’ve got a good group of three-year olds this year so I won’t have to listen to fellow handicappers complaining on the forums about what a poor crop we have.  Last year at this time it seemed that each prep race was being won by a different horse and there were no clear and consistent top performers.  This year the picture already seems to be much clearer about which horses are going to make up the field for the first Saturday in May.

Since I last made an entry I have been continuing to amass prep race results.  This weekend I could no longer resist and decided to begin to analyze the performance of some of these horses by looking at the pace breakdown of each individual race.  So yesterday I ventured outside with my stack of race results to enjoy the unseasonably warm sunny weather as I began my pace analysis.  I must say I was a little surprised to find that so far most of the races have been run at what is referred to as an honest pace whereby no particular run-style stands to benefit.  Normally this analysis helps me to rank the contenders according to whether I felt the pace of their race impacted their performance.  For example a fast early pace and a slow late pace will be to the advantage of horses with a closing run-style and to the disadvantage of those who make up the early speed in a race.  This analysis allows me to decide whether to upgrade or downplay a horse’s performance based on whether or not the pace was to their advantage.  

Yesterday the Rebel Stakes was run at Oaklawn Park.  Secret Circle, the betting favourite, was able to hold on to win this one but the performance which caught my eye was that of a horse named Optimizer.  He made a very late move which made the other horses look like they were running on empty.  When preparing for the Derby I like to see a horse that can accelerate quickly.  With a crowded field of 20 horses in the Derby horses often get boxed in and only get one chance to make their move.   A horse needs to be able to immediately take advantage if a timely hole opens up, so it is a great advantage in a crowded field to have push button acceleration.  I’ve had a chance to look at the fractional times for this race and the late pace was very slow meaning closers like Optimizer definitely had the pace advantage.  Nevertheless I’ll definitely be keeping my eye on Optimizer and look forward to seeing how he performs in his final prep.  Anyhow, the sun is out this morning and again it’s nice and warm so I think I’ll close for now and move outside to begin putting together my pace analysis chart. 

Any Excuse to Handicap

I was quite excited to write this weekend’s entry into my blog.  It looked like the Fountain of Youth, one of this weekend’s derby preps, was shaping up to be an interesting match-up of three major contenders.  With so many prep races out there we don’t often get to see some of the top Triple Crown contenders meeting up so early in the season.  The entries for the Fountain of Youth included Algorithms, Union Rags and Discreet Dancer.  Algorithms trained by Todd Pletcher, recently beat Hansen, last year’s two-year-old champion when winning the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park.  Union Rags was going to be making his seasonal debut since winning last year’s Champagne Stakes and finishing as runner-up to Hansen in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.  Discreet Dancer, another promising Pletcher trainee, was going to be making his stakes debut after having won his first two races by a combined 15 lengths.  It all sounded very exciting to me, and as it turns out, too good to be true.  I just got home from doing some shopping and checked in with one of my favourite horses racing sites to find out that Algorithms, the likely favourite, has had to scratch due to a popped splint.  That’s horse racing for you – full of disappointments. 

I’ve been fighting sickness this week and when I saw the line-up for the Fountain of Youth and the Risen Star Stakes I decided I needed some R n’ R and some handicapping time on the couch.  This was my first chance to do some handicapping on paper since the Breeder’s Cup in November, so feeling a little under the weather was the perfect excuse to be couch-bound with my past performance sheets (PP’s).  As it turned out, in addition to these two prep races, there were several interesting races being run this weekend.  I’d forgotten how much I love handicapping on paper.  Handicapping the races visually, while fun and far less time-consuming work than the analysis of past performance records, does not allow for sufficient time to rest and boost one’s immune system while lying on the couch. 

Anyways, this was a fun handicapping weekend despite the scratch of Algorithms.  What I like best about handicapping is the decision about what factors are going to be most important in a given race.  At this time of year when handicapping three-year-old races I must admit that I focus a lot on speed figures.  I want to see steadily improving speed figures or marked improvement when a horse switches from sprint to route races.  I also look at runstyles and the likely pace scenario given the different runstyles of the entries.  When trying to find a longshot to back, I also look for poor past performances in a horse’s recent history and excuses for these poor performances.  If I can find a plausible excuse for a poor performance I can back a horse with longer odds.  If this horse goes on to lose I don’t have to feel so bad about my pick – it was a longshot anyways right?  I’m very unforgiving though and never allow a second excuse.             

This weekend I saw some favourites do well and some favourites fail to menace.  While I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Discreet Dancer or Union Rags do well I’m excited about the chances of a horse called Casual Trick.  He performed quite poorly in his last race but I’ve decided to excuse his performance due to a stumble at the start of the race.  Instead I’m choosing to look at his prior races and his improving speed figures with the elimination of this last race.  He’s trained by Nick Zito, no stranger to the Triple Crown trail.  He’s one of the many derby contenders sired by Bernardini, and his damsire Red Ransom lends distance to his pedigree.  I’m a big fan of exactas and exacta boxes where I can couple a promising favourite with a longshot.  Today with the scratch of Algorithms I’ll box Casual Trick with either Union Rags or Discreet Dancer in an exacta.  As I often do, I’ll make a last minute decision between the two favourites based on their body language in the post parade.  What a fine weekend of racing:  combining visual handicapping with my analysis of the pp’s.  It doesn’t get much better than this.  Time to get out my favourite Australian horse racing beer cosy, or as I like to call it my hand-warmer, and lay back on my sickbed to enjoy the show.             

Making Connections

   At this point along the derby trail there are so many new names and new stories to follow. As I try to absorb as many of the names as possible from this new crop of three year-olds, I look for familiar connections to help me sort out who is who. I look for familiar trainers, trainer-jockey combos and Canadian connections. I also look at bloodlines - not because I’m a pedigree analyst, but because these names are familiar to me from years following the sport of horse racing. I definitely have my favourite sires and I’m always excited to see their newest progeny competing and carrying on the bloodline.

   This year I’m quite taken with the number of Bernardini offspring appearing in the earliest of the Kentucky Derby preps. In my last blog entry I mentioned a horse called Hansen who was heavily favoured to win the Holy Bull. As it turns out he was beaten quite handily by Algorithms, a son of Bernardini. Algorithms certainly looked the part and likely turned many heads when he appeared in the post parade. The Holy Bull was run in the slop so perhaps it’s still too early to write off the chances of Hansen (maybe his fadder wasn’t a mudder). Then yesterday the Withers Stakes were run at Aqueduct and I was intrigued to see Alpha (another son of Bernardini) competing. In 2006 the Withers Stakes was won by Bernardini himself and this year his offspring won with ease. After watching this race I looked at the nominations for the Triple Crown and there are seven Bernardini offspring entered this year.

   This is only Bernardini’s second crop of three year-olds to compete on the derby trail. Will his offspring continue to do well in their derby preps and will they be able to handle the one and a quarter mile distance of the Derby? Bernardini himself never made it to the big race. A lung infection set him back in his training and he simply wasn’t ready to compete on the first Saturday in May. He did go on to win the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown, and at the end of the season he took the Eclipse Award for Top Three Year-Old Male. Worth more as a sire than as a racehorse (a sad reality in this industry), he was retired at the end of his three year-old season and he now commands a stud fee of $150 000. He’s become the hottest sire out there with 2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta expecting his foal in March. Now the connections of both Rachel Alexandra (2009 Horse of the Year) and Blind Luck (2010 Champion Three Year-Old Filly) have decided to match up their champions with Bernardini in this year’s breeding season. As an interesting side note, with only five fillies ever having won this race, the match up of Rachel Alexandra and Bernardini will likely be the first mating of two Preakness winners.

   So this year I will be following the Bernardinis as they continue in their training but I’m also taken with a horse called Battle Hardened. Once again it’s the sire connection grabbing my attention. This maiden horse won yesterday’s Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. I loved watching Giant’s Causeway run in his racedays and I would love to see one of his progeny go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Creative Cause is another exciting derby hopeful sired by Giant’s Causeway. In closing, I can’t miss mention of my favourite sire with a Canadian connection: Langfuhr. Checking the list of this year’s nominees I must admit I got a wee bit excited by the number sired by Langfuhr and the even greater number sired by his son Lawyer Ron. Maybe next week I’ll have a derby trail breakthrough story with a Langfuhr connection to share?

Giant's Causeway

It Begins Again

   Practically the end of January and my annual break from horse racing has now officially ended. Not really a break as I still keep checking my favourite sites for news stories of interest, but I’m not really living it during my brief seasonal hiatus. Not until tomorrow that is, with the running of the Holy Bull Stakes. It begins once again. Preparing for the first Saturday in May means I only have only three months in which to get it all done.

   Of course I’ve already got a number of derby prep race result printouts scattered about the house. Soon they will be assembled into a tidy little pile. With each passing week this pile will begin to grow and I will eventually become the proud owner of a stack. I will resist the urge to examine the contents of my stack until April rolls around and then I will begin my analysis. I’ll set up my work station and then each prep race will be broken down and every available stat overanalyzed. It’s all about the handicapping rituals and this is what I want to share through my writing. Other handicappers, horse racing fans and their significant others understand what this is all about, however for the majority of the population the rituals of this obsession go unrecognized.

   But, it’s still early days on the Kentucky Derby trail. The horse racing champions of last season have just been recognized with their Eclipse Awards. Will last year’s two year-old champions continue to have what it takes and will they be able to stretch out in distance and take on the one and a quarter mile distance of the Kentucky Derby? For those who know nothing about this sport, horses only get one shot to win the Kentucky Derby as this race is open only to three year-olds. My computer desk will soon be littered with sticky notes as I jot down the names of the newest up and coming three year-olds being discussed on the forums by my fellow horse racing junkies.

   As I settle down to watch tomorrow’s Holy Bull, I will take a deep breath before the post parade of horses begins. I will remind myself not to get too excited as many horses simply don’t make the final cut. Early favourites from the winter and spring rarely make it to the big day and morning line favourites often scratch, but that’s a whole other story for a whole other day. Tomorrow I will just take that deep breath, sit back, relax and enjoy the race. Oh, who am I kidding! Tomorrow we will finally find out if Eclipse Champion Hansen, that special white thoroughbred, can beat his newest line up of rival three year-olds. Does he have what it takes or will he become the first to fall from the derby trail?

Tomorrow I can begin to live it all again.