Six Days and Counting

     A week ago it felt like I was well ahead in my preparations but suddenly I feel like there’s so much left to consider.  It’s definitely a very wide open race this year.  I could make a convincing case to support the chances of at least half of this year’s field.  Nevertheless I still need to narrow down my picks.  I often have a sentimental favourite at this point but this season I’ve changed my mind several times.  We’ve certainly had a number of impressive performances in the prep races so picking a favourite will not be easy this year.  

     For anyone looking for my picks, I’m still likely to change my mind, and possibly several times over the next six days, but here they are:  Dullahan, Take Charge Indy and Union Rags.  My second tier of hopefuls include:  Creative Cause, I’ll Have Another, Went the Day Well and Gemologist.  Take Charge Indy is the only horse this year to score 4 out of 4 in my "four key factors" analysis.  This analysis considers a horse’s ability to succeed at the distance, their run style, their recent BRIS speed figures and late pace figures.  Dullahan’s performance in both the Blue Grass Stakes and the Palm Beach Handicap have caught my eye this year.  If he runs as well on dirt as he has on turf and all-weather surfaces he should be a tough one to beat.  Gemologist who is presently unbeaten made an impressive move in the Wood Memorial showing an ability to change gears quickly, just like Dullahan.  With possible traffic issues in a 20 horse field this can be a huge advantage.  Union Rags looks like a man amongst the boys but he was beaten by Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby.     

     I’m about half way through the process of re-watching each of the three year old prep races.  I’ve analyzed the pace for each of these preps to determine whether the pace was favourable or disadvantageous for each derby contender in the race.  I’ve also calculated the final fractions for each of these races to determine which races had the most contentious late pace.  With all of this information about the prep races I’m able to rank the performances of the individual horses to determine who is best prepared to win the run for the roses.  

     When I get home from work on Wednesday I’ll head to the computer to find out the results of the post position draw and add this information to my analysis. With Trinniberg’s connections deciding to enter their horse, it looks like we should have a fast early pace to the dismay of the connections of those horses looking for an easy early pace.  Pressers, horses who run from off the pace and trail the early speed horses, tend to do well in the Kentucky Derby.  Stalkers or closers who come from the back half of the field often run into trouble when facing so much traffic.   

     While post position, preferred run style and the possibility of a wet track will definitely be on my mind this week, I will still need to find the time to make bourbon balls and mint juleps.  This year I am determined to find mint at my first stop and avoid the frustrating tradition of visiting four or five stores before finding this essential herb for my mint julep preparations.  In my final entry before the big day I will share my mint julep and bourbon ball misadventures and hopefully try to narrow down my picks.     

Getting Down to Business

     Yesterday they ran the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. This means the field for the Kentucky Derby is pretty much set based on the present graded stakes earnings of the top contenders. Yes, the Lexington Stakes is still to be run next weekend so someone may still earn enough money to squeeze into the top 20. However horses coming out of the Lexington rarely go on to run well in the Derby (if their connections even decide to enter them off of only two weeks rest). So I can now begin to clear the dining room table to make room to spread out all my paperwork. Sorry Chris!

     I’m quite excited as this seems like a very interesting match up of contenders this year. At this time there are still two possible runners for Aidan O’Brien (top Irish trainer) prepping off races from Dubai World Cup night. We’ve also got 8 of the 14 horses who ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last fall who are still performing well in their three year old campaign and will likely be running in the Derby. With the Breeders Cup jinx, this indeed is highly unheard of. Over the last three weekends we’ve seen some very intriguing performances in the final prep races. We’ve seen a horse win at 109 – 1, we’ve seen front-runners learning to rate, we’ve seen front-runners going wire-to-wire and crushing their opponents, we’ve seen horses pulled up prematurely right after passing the wire, we’ve seen horses lose the lead and then fight back to win, we’ve seen horses with push-button acceleration . We’ve even seen an owner paint his horse’s tail blue before the Blue Grass Stakes, only to be told to return it to its normal colour or risk being pulled from running. All in all it looks like a highly competitive field of potential runners so let the handicapping fest begin!

     I’m also extremely excited to begin what I like to call my “Four Key Factors” analysis. But before I begin making my traditional “Four Key Factors” chart, I feel I need to do a little research this year about one of the stats I use as part of this analysis. Luckily I’ve amassed at least 10 years of reliable Kentucky Derby stats in my file box, so I will be able to conduct some research before deciding whether or not to make a change in my trusted system. I’m a little dubious about tinkering with my system, but one of my stats may prove to be outdated in its usefulness and may need to be replaced.


     Next week I’ll generously share a little info in my blog about the “Four Key Factors” I use in selecting my top derby contenders. I’ll also conduct a little research into its reliability in narrowing down the actual winner. Although I’ve come to rely on this system of analysis, my handicapping of the field certainly doesn’t stop with the completion of this one chart. This is just my annual starting point and with the completion of this chart, my analysis will begin to branch off in several other directions. With only three weeks left it’s time to get down to business.