Getting Down to Business

     Yesterday they ran the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. This means the field for the Kentucky Derby is pretty much set based on the present graded stakes earnings of the top contenders. Yes, the Lexington Stakes is still to be run next weekend so someone may still earn enough money to squeeze into the top 20. However horses coming out of the Lexington rarely go on to run well in the Derby (if their connections even decide to enter them off of only two weeks rest). So I can now begin to clear the dining room table to make room to spread out all my paperwork. Sorry Chris!

     I’m quite excited as this seems like a very interesting match up of contenders this year. At this time there are still two possible runners for Aidan O’Brien (top Irish trainer) prepping off races from Dubai World Cup night. We’ve also got 8 of the 14 horses who ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last fall who are still performing well in their three year old campaign and will likely be running in the Derby. With the Breeders Cup jinx, this indeed is highly unheard of. Over the last three weekends we’ve seen some very intriguing performances in the final prep races. We’ve seen a horse win at 109 – 1, we’ve seen front-runners learning to rate, we’ve seen front-runners going wire-to-wire and crushing their opponents, we’ve seen horses pulled up prematurely right after passing the wire, we’ve seen horses lose the lead and then fight back to win, we’ve seen horses with push-button acceleration . We’ve even seen an owner paint his horse’s tail blue before the Blue Grass Stakes, only to be told to return it to its normal colour or risk being pulled from running. All in all it looks like a highly competitive field of potential runners so let the handicapping fest begin!

     I’m also extremely excited to begin what I like to call my “Four Key Factors” analysis. But before I begin making my traditional “Four Key Factors” chart, I feel I need to do a little research this year about one of the stats I use as part of this analysis. Luckily I’ve amassed at least 10 years of reliable Kentucky Derby stats in my file box, so I will be able to conduct some research before deciding whether or not to make a change in my trusted system. I’m a little dubious about tinkering with my system, but one of my stats may prove to be outdated in its usefulness and may need to be replaced.


     Next week I’ll generously share a little info in my blog about the “Four Key Factors” I use in selecting my top derby contenders. I’ll also conduct a little research into its reliability in narrowing down the actual winner. Although I’ve come to rely on this system of analysis, my handicapping of the field certainly doesn’t stop with the completion of this one chart. This is just my annual starting point and with the completion of this chart, my analysis will begin to branch off in several other directions. With only three weeks left it’s time to get down to business.