Pace and Acceleration

I haven’t been able to get motivated to write about horse racing recently as I’ve been so crushed with the Ontario government’s decision to end the slots at racetracks program.  As a horse-racing fan I’m upset because the Liberal government’s decision to renege on this profit-sharing deal is inevitably going to mean that most racetracks in my province will not be able to survive without their share of the profits.  Woodbine will likely survive but I have no faith that many others will.  I’m devastated for those individuals and families who have been involved in the industry for generations and stand to lose everything they’ve worked for.  I’ve also been disgusted with the dishonest manner in which the Liberals have been trying to sell this decision to the people of Ontario.  Not one single penny of tax-payer money has been taken away from the education or health care system to fund the horse racing industry.  This was a profit sharing program whereby both the government and the horse racing industry were profiting from money spent by the public.  To learn more you can go to value4money.ca. 

I could continue to rant but I want this blog to be about sharing what I love about horse racing so I’ll leave it at that for now.  There are six more weeks before the Kentucky Derby which means most horses will have just one more prep race before the big day.  I’ve been very impressed to see so many of last year’s top-ranked two year olds continuing to perform well in their three year old preps.  Oftentimes a horse that performs well in their two year old season is simply developmentally ahead of their peers but, as time goes by they often seem to lose this developmental edge.  Hopefully the consistent performance of the top contenders means we’ve got a good group of three-year olds this year so I won’t have to listen to fellow handicappers complaining on the forums about what a poor crop we have.  Last year at this time it seemed that each prep race was being won by a different horse and there were no clear and consistent top performers.  This year the picture already seems to be much clearer about which horses are going to make up the field for the first Saturday in May.

Since I last made an entry I have been continuing to amass prep race results.  This weekend I could no longer resist and decided to begin to analyze the performance of some of these horses by looking at the pace breakdown of each individual race.  So yesterday I ventured outside with my stack of race results to enjoy the unseasonably warm sunny weather as I began my pace analysis.  I must say I was a little surprised to find that so far most of the races have been run at what is referred to as an honest pace whereby no particular run-style stands to benefit.  Normally this analysis helps me to rank the contenders according to whether I felt the pace of their race impacted their performance.  For example a fast early pace and a slow late pace will be to the advantage of horses with a closing run-style and to the disadvantage of those who make up the early speed in a race.  This analysis allows me to decide whether to upgrade or downplay a horse’s performance based on whether or not the pace was to their advantage.  

Yesterday the Rebel Stakes was run at Oaklawn Park.  Secret Circle, the betting favourite, was able to hold on to win this one but the performance which caught my eye was that of a horse named Optimizer.  He made a very late move which made the other horses look like they were running on empty.  When preparing for the Derby I like to see a horse that can accelerate quickly.  With a crowded field of 20 horses in the Derby horses often get boxed in and only get one chance to make their move.   A horse needs to be able to immediately take advantage if a timely hole opens up, so it is a great advantage in a crowded field to have push button acceleration.  I’ve had a chance to look at the fractional times for this race and the late pace was very slow meaning closers like Optimizer definitely had the pace advantage.  Nevertheless I’ll definitely be keeping my eye on Optimizer and look forward to seeing how he performs in his final prep.  Anyhow, the sun is out this morning and again it’s nice and warm so I think I’ll close for now and move outside to begin putting together my pace analysis chart.